【分享】汤森路透的诺贝尔经济学猜想 13页

编者语：诺贝尔瑞典银行经济学奖将于当地时间10月14日下午1点钟于斯德哥尔摩诺贝尔奖研究院颁发。经济学奖历来是各个奖项中最让人捉摸不定的。今年的经济学奖未公布前，多家研究机构和博彩公司都做出了各种大胆的预测。而其中汤森路透社根据自己独有的研究数据库WebofKnowledge发布的“引文桂冠奖”获奖名单则最受关注。汤森路透年度“引文桂冠奖”开始于2002年，该奖项基于对化学、物理学、医学和经济学领域的科研引文分析来识别最有影响力的研究人员，据称迄今已成功预测了27位诺贝尔奖得主。每年，汤森路透都会利用其研究解决方案WebofKnowledge中的数据，根据研究人员发表的研究成果的总被引频次，来分析和预测最有影响力的研究人员。根据研究人员所发表论文在过去二十年间被引用的次数，汤森路透引文桂冠得主通常名列其研究领域科研人员的前千分之一。无论汤森路透的预测结果是否最终命中，“引文桂冠奖”都在一定程度上为我们揭示了当前经济学最热门的研究领域。汤森路透2013年诺贝尔经济学奖预测结果：第一组提名候选人：对经济学时间序列（Economictime-series），包括建模、试验和预测做出了贡献。大卫·亨利爵士（SirDavidF.Hendry），英国牛津大学经济学教授哈希姆·佩萨兰（M.HashemPesaran），剑桥大学教授，南加州大学和三一大学名誉经济学教授以及名誉经济学家皮特·菲利普斯（PeterC.B.Phillips），耶鲁大学计量和经济学教授第二组提名候选人：对经济学监管理论（Economictheoriesofregulation）的延伸做出了贡献。山姆·佩兹曼（SamPeltzman），芝加哥大学布斯商学院拉尔夫和多萝西凯勒杰出服务教授理查德·A·波斯纳（RichardA.Posner），美国联邦上诉法院法官，芝加哥大学法学院教授，法律经济学运动的重要人物 第三组提名候选人：对实证微观经济学（Empiricalmicroeconomics）的发展做出了贡献。约书亚·安格里斯特（JoshuaD.Angrist），美国麻省理工大学福特经济学教授大卫·卡德（DavidE.Card），美国加州大学伯克利分校1950级经济学教授阿兰·克鲁格（AlanB.Krueger），美国普林斯顿大学经济学教授汤森路透2013年诺贝尔经济学奖预测理由阐述及提名者介绍：Econometrictime-seriesEconometriciansusemathematics,statistics,andcomputersciencetounderstandeconomicrelationshipsthatmaybefoundinobserveddataofvarioustypes,suchastime-series,cross-sectional,andpaneldata.Theyusethesetoolstotesteconomictheoryagainstreal-worlddata,and,inturn,thedataprovideatestforthequalityofeconometricmodelsconstructedtodepictthoserelationships,particularlyhowtheyinteractunderspecificconditions.Forecastingisapracticalapplicationofeconometricmodels,but,asthephysicistNielsBohrfamouslystated,“Itisverydifficulttomakepredictions,especiallyaboutthefuture.”Theproblemofforecastinganeconomicsystemiscompoundedbyitsvastarrayofrelationshipsaswellastheirstochasticnature.Despitethesechallenges,threeofour2013CitationLaureatesineconomics—SirDavidF.HendryoftheUniversityofOxford,M.HashemPesaranofthe UniversityofSouthernCalifornia,andPeterC.B.PhillipsofYaleUniversity—havededicatedtheirlivestoadvancingthisareaofresearchandtocreatingimprovedeconometricmodelsthathavepracticalapplicationforpolicymakers,centralbankers,andfinancialandbusinessexecutives.Infact,allthreeoftheseresearchersworkdirectlywithend-usersonmodelsandsystemstheyhavedesignedformonitoringactivity,detectingrisk,andmakingtimelydecisions.Hendry,whosementorwasthefamouseconometricianoftheLondonSchoolofEconomicsJohnDenisSargan(1924-1996),hasconcentratedonmacroeconomictime-seriesanalysis.Hismost-citedpaper,publishedin1983withthe2003NobelPrizewinnerineconomicsRobertF.EngleandwithJeanFrancoisRichard,is“Exogeneity,”Econometrica,51(2):277-304(cited592timesinWebofScience).Hissecondmost-citedpaperis“Econometricmodelingoftheaggregatetime-seriesrelationshipbetweenconsumers’expenditureandincomeintheUnitedKingdom,”EconomicJournal,88(352):661-92,1978,co-authoredwithJamesE.H.Davidson,FrankSrba,andStephenYeo(cited585timesinWebofScience).Hendry’smagnumopusisDynamicEconometrics,(Oxford,1995),whichhasbeencited600timesbyjournalarticlesindexedinWebofScience.Anin-depthinterviewwithHendry,surveyinghiscareerinterestsandspecificcontributions,was publishedin2004:NeilR.Ericsson,“TheETInterview:ProfessorDavidF.Hendry,”EconometricTheory,20:743-804.Phillips,whoalsostudiedwithSargan,hasmadeinfluentialcontributionstothetestingoftime-seriesforspuriousregressions.Histhreemost-citedpapersalldealwithtestingforunitroots:“Testingforaunitrootintime-seriesregression,”Biometrika,75(2):335-46,1988,withPierrePerron(2,379citationsinWebofScience);“Testingthenullhypothesisofstationarityagainstthealternativeofaunitroot:Howsurearewethateconomictimeserieshaveaunitroot?,”JournalofEconometrics,54(1-3):159-78,1992,withDenisKwiatkowski,PeterSchmidt,andYongcheolShin(1,903citationsinWebofScience);and,“Time-seriesregressionwithaunitroot,”Econometrica,55(2):277-301,1987(989citations).AsPhillipsexplainsinaninterviewconductedforScienceWatch:“Spuriousregressionsarisewhencompletelyuncorrelatedtrendingdatamanifeststatisticallysignificantcorrelationsinpracticalwork.Thesecorrelationscanbedevilempiricalresearch...Wewereabletodevelopsomeverygeneraldiagnosticteststhathelpedtoidentifysuchspuriousregressions,calledunitroottests.Thesetestsarenowroutinelyusedinempiricalresearch”(see:interviewthispage).Hismost-citedpaper,mentionedabove,describeswhatisnowknownasthePhillips-PerronTest, whiletheseconddescribeswhatiscalledtheKPSSTest(anacronymbasedonthefirstinitialsoftheauthors’surnames).PesaranwasformanyyearsaprofessorofeconomicsattheUniversityofCambridgebutisnowattheUniversityofSouthernCaliforniainLosAngeles.Since1995,hehastakenaparticularinterestinpaneldata,whichprovideamultidimensionalviewoftime-seriesandcross-sectionaldata.Pesaran’smost-citedpaperis“Testingforunitrootsinheterogeneouspanels,”JournalofEconometrics,115(1):53-74,2003,whichhasalreadycollected1,251citationsinWebofScience,or76timestheaveragefora10-year-oldpaperineconomics.Acloselyrelated,morerecentpaperis“Asimplepanelunitroottestinthepresenceofcross-sectiondependence,”JournalofAppliedEconometrics,22(2):265-312,2007,with257citationstodateinWebofScience.ScienceWatchinterviewedPesaraninJanuary2012aboutthispaper,whichwasthenidentifiedasacore,orfoundational,paperinafast-movingresearchfront.“Mosteconomicdataeitherarrangedbycountries,regions,orindustriesdisplayaconsiderabledegreeofinterdependence,”heobserved.“Mypaperprovidesasimpleapproachtodealingwithsuchdependencieswhentestingforhighlypersistenttimeeffects....Thechangingnatureofcrosssectiondependenceovertimeisalsoofinterestasitcanshedlighton herdingbehaviorandcontagion.”ThisyearsawthepublicationofTheGVARHandbook:StructureandApplicationsofaMacroModeloftheGlobalEconomyforPolicyAnalysis,editedbyPesaranandFilippodiMauro(Oxford,2013).GVARstandsforglobalvectorautoregressionandisatypeofeconometricmodeldevelopedbyPesaranoverthelastdecadeforanalyzingnationalandregionalinteractionsandinterdependenciesthroughouteconomiesandmarketsglobally.EconomictheoriesofregulationANobelPrizeconferredinpartforcontributionstoregulatoryeconomicswasawardedin1982tothelateGeorgeJ.Stigler"forhisseminalstudiesofindustrialstructures,functioningofmarketsandcausesandeffectsofpublicregulation."Itcanbeargued,however,thatthisPrizeofthreedecadesagohardlyexhauststhosedeservingofrecognitionfortheirresearchonthistopic,whichhasattractedincreasinginterestthroughouttheyears(seebelow).Stigler’spioneeringworkonregulationfocusedonhowregulationbenefitsproducers(industrialfirms)morethanconsumers(aphenomenontermed“regulatorycapture”wheninitiatedbyproducersandsometimesotherinterestgroups).Stigler’skeypaperis“Theoryofeconomicregulation,”BellJournalofEconomicsandManagement Science,2(1):3-21,1971,whichhasbeencitednearly2,100timesinWebofScience.In2012,thepaperreceivedover100citations—morethaninanypreviousyear.Itisunusual,tosaytheleast,thata43-year-oldpapercontinuestohavesuchinfluence,sincethetypicalpatternineconomicsisthatapaperreachesitspeakinannualcitationsinaperiodbetween10to20years.Thejuristandpolymath,RichardA.Posner,aself-taughteconomist,isoneofthisyear’sThomsonReutersCitationLaureatesinEconomics.In1971Posnerpublished“Taxationbyregulation,”BellJournalofEconomicsandManagementScience,2(1):22-50,whichappearedimmediatelyafterStigler’spapermentionedaboveinthesamejournalissue.PosnershowedthatStigler’semphasisonthebenefitsofregulationtoproducersdidnotholdinallcasesandthatmanyexamplesofregulationbenefittingconsumersorparticularclassesofconsumers(cross-subsidization)couldbecited.Thisarticlehasreceived251citationsinWebofScience.ButPosner’smost-citedcontributiontoregulatoryeconomicswaspublishedthreeyearslater:“Theoriesofeconomicregulation,”BellJournalofEconomics,5(2):335-58,1974(586citationsintheWebofScience).Inthisarticle,PosnerenumeratedmanyquestionsaboutStigler’sone-sidedmodelandprovidedmanycounter-examples.Healsobroadenedtheanalysis ofregulationbyraisingthequestionofwhetheritmightaimforsociallyefficientratherthaneconomicallyefficientallocationofresources.Withthisreview,Posnerencourageddeeperthinkingaboutthenatureandeffectsofregulation,boththeoreticalandempirical.HereitcanalsobenotedthatPosner’stextbookEconomicAnalysisofLaw,nowinitseighthedition(2010),hasbeencitedmorethan4,600timesintheWebofSciencesinceitsfirstedition,publishedin1972.In1985,Posnerpennedacommentaryonthisbook,whichwasrecognizedbytheInstituteforScientificInformation(nowThomsonReuters)asaCitationClassic:TheWeek"sCitationClassic.SamPeltzman,aneconomistattheUniversityofChicago’sBoothSchoolofBusiness,ispairedwithPosnerasa2013ThomsonReutersCitationLaureateinEconomics.In1976Peltzmanpublished“Towardamoregeneraltheoryofregulation,”JournalofLawandEconomics,19(2):211-40,hismost-citedpaper(1,523citationsintheWebofScience).ThisarticleimprovedonStigler’smodelandaddressedsomeoftheissuesraisedbyPosner.PeltzmanrebalancedStigler’sexplanationbyshowingthatthepoliticalactorsultimatelyresponsibleforregulatoryagencieshavesignificantintereststhatmayconflictwiththoseofproducers.Hepointedoutthatwhileconsumersmaybelesswellorganizedthan,say,anindustrylobby workingonbehalfofproducers,theyvoteinaccordwiththeireconomicinterests.Producerswantprotectiontosecurehighpriceswhereasconsumersseeklowpricesthatresultfromgreatercompetitionamongproducers.Legislatorsthereforeseekanequilibriumsolutionbetweentheinterestsandcampaigncontributionsofproducersandthevotesandcontributionsofcitizensonwhomtheydependfortheirreelection.Inacitation-basedstudybyE.HanKim,AdairMorse,andLuigiZingalesentitled“Whathasmatteredtoeconomicssince1970,”JournalofEconomicPerspectives,20(4):189-202,2006,Peltzman’spaperranksamongthetopthreedozenlisted.Hissecond-most-citedpaper,with445citationsinWebofScience,is“Effectsofautomobilesafetyregulation,”JournalofPoliticalEconomy,83(4):677-725,1975.Inthisstudy,Peltzmanshowedthatseatbeltlawsproducedmoreriskydrivingbehaviorsthatcouldoffsettheintendedsafetybenefits—eithertothedriversthemselvesor,ifnotthem,tootherdriversnotwearingseatbeltsortopedestriansandbicyclists.Thephenomenonhascometobecalledthe“PeltzmanEffect.”Empiricalmicroeconomics“Themicro-empiricists’view,”notedthedistinguishedlaboreconomistRichardB.Freeman,“isthatthereismuchtobelearnedin thesmall:analyzinghowmarketsforwell-definedgroupsreacttoexogenousshocks...canillustratehowtheeconomyoperates.”(“InhonorofDavidCard:WinneroftheJohnBatesClarkMedal,”JournalofEconomicPerspectives,11(2):168,1997).ItisforpioneeringresearchofthistypethatThomsonReutershasnamedDavidCardoftheUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley,AlanKruegerofPrincetonUniversity,andJoshuaAngristofMITasthreeofitsCitationLaureatesforEconomicsfor2013.Theirworkoftenmakesuseofso-callednaturalexperiments(termedobservationalstudiesinotherfields),inwhichahypothesisaboutamarketphenomenoncanbeanalyzedbyinterrogatinganappropriatedataset,onethatpermitstheuseofcontrols.Sometimesthesedataalreadyexist,andthechallengeisbothinchoosingtherightquestionstoaskandensuringcareful,unbiasedanalysis.Othertimesdatamustbecollected—butjusttherighttypeofdatatoprovideagoodtestofwhatisofteneconomicconventionalwisdom.Awell-knownexampleisCardandKrueger’spaper“Minimumwagesandemployment:Acasestudyofthefast-foodindustryinNewJerseyandPennsylvania,”AmericanEconomicReview,84(4):772-93,1994,whichconcluded,contrarytoexpectation,thatanincreaseintheminimumwageenactedinNewJerseydidnotresultinloweremploymentrelativetothatofPennsylvania,whichservedasthecontrol—atleastnotatthe modestlyincreasedlevelintroducedinNewJersey.Thefindingwascontroversialandvigorouslydebated,buttheirstudyisamodelofcarefullychosenmethodsdeployedonappropriatedatatoillustratealabormarketissueofpracticalconcernforpolicymakersandthepublic.With335citationstodateinWebofScience,thisisCard’ssecond-andKrueger’seighth-most-citedpaper.Together,CardandKruegeralsostudiedtherelationshipbetweeninputsandoutcomesineducation,usingstateschoolandcensusdata:“Doesschoolqualitymatter?ReturnstoeducationandthecharacteristicsofpublicschoolsintheUnitedStates,”JournalofPoliticalEconomy,100(1):1-40,1992(437citationsinWebofScience).Evenamoderateincreaseinschoolfundingwasfoundtomakeadifference,whenmeasuredbylater-lifeincomesofmatchedindividuals.CardandKruegeralsocollaboratedonthe1997bookMythandMeasurement:TheNewEconomicsoftheMinimumWage,whichhasaccumulatedover500citationsinWebofScience.Angrist,ahighlycitedeconomistwhoalsotakesarigorousempiricalapproachtolabormarketquestions,hasfocusedoneducationaswell.In1991,AngristandKruegerpublished“Doescompulsoryschoolattendanceaffectschoolingandearnings?,”QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,106(4):979-1014,(cited381timesinWebofScience),whichfoundthatforcingschoolcontinuation,especiallyforthosewhomay dropout,significantlyboostsincomeinadulthood.Thetwomost-citedpapersbyAngristdealwithmethodologiesinempiricalstudies:“Identificationofcasualeffectsusinginstrumentalvariables,”JournaloftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation,91(434):444-55,1996,writtenwithGuidoW.ImbensandDonaldB.Rubin(978citationsinWebofScience),and“Identificationandestimationoflocalaveragetreatmenteffects,”Econometrica,62(2):467-75,1994,alsoco-authoredwithImbens(608citationsinWebofScience).Citationstothispairofpaperscomenotonlyfromeconomicsjournalsbutalsothoseinpublic,environmental,andoccupationalhealth,socialsciencesmethods,computationalbiology,education,politicalscience,sociology,anddemography,amongmanyothers,reflectingsignificantinterdisciplinaryinfluence.The2009bookMostlyHarmlessEconometrics:AnEmpiricist’sCompanion,byAngristandJörn-SteffanPischke,summarizespracticalmethodsineconometricsforabroadaudience;ithasalreadybeencitednearly600timesinWebofScience.TherangeoftopicsthatCard,Krueger,andAngristhavestudiedisremarkable:unemployment,wages,unions,immigration,education,healthinsurance,terrorism,incomedistribution,regulation,methods.Theircommonapproachtoansweringfundamentalquestionsabouthowmarketsworkhasplainlyhadgreatimpact—notonlydeepbut broadaswell.（完）（文章根据汤森路透网站SCIENCEWATCH内容整理）